2020-07-19 Fauci’s Interview on TWIV

We still don’t know how much spread is droplets vs aerosol. It seems like mostly droplets, but maybe some aerosol.

We still don’t know how much spread is by surfaces. We know viral RNA can persist on smooth surfaces like stainless steel and plastic for 48 hours. But we have only detected the virus in those cases by PCR. We do not know if that virus is replication competent.

We don’t know how long people are infectious. Some people have detectable RNA for weeks, but it seems like when people hit a PCR cycle count of 37+ the odds that they are still infectious are “minuscule”.

We don’t know for sure how much transmission is done by pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic people. But we know that at least 1,156 crew on the USS Theodore Roosevelt ended up testing positive. It seems unlikely that someone coughed on all 1,156 of those people.

Do children transmit in the same was as adults. “Data free zone”. We don’t know, but there is a study in progress and we should have an answer soon.

The downstream effects of having kids out of school, for the kids, for parents, for society, are very “deleterious”. There are some areas where the infection rates are so low that we should clearly send the kids back o school. There are some areas where the infection rate is high enough that we have to do something to mitigate risk, which could be…

What is the CFR? It is totally dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. It is clearly worse than the flu, and clearly no as bad as SARS. It has got to be somewhere around 1%. But it is hard to

What is the best estimate for seroprevalence in the US? NYC is 22%. US is probably a few percent, maybe 3-4%.

Can herd immunity be achieved without a vaccine?

2020-07-17 Home Buying Tips


  • You need mortgage pre-approval in order to go into contract, but you are not committed to getting a mortgage from the bank that gives you pre-approval. You can and should shop around for the best mortgage rate after going into contract.

  • Negotiating interest rate is more important than negotiating price. Get as many mortgage offers as you can, and bargain them against each other.

  • Small banks often offer better mortgage terms than large banks.

  • Ask to follow the home inspector around, and ask them questions.

  • Read the contracts carefully. No one else will care as much as you.

  • Check the HOA / condo finances. Read the board minutes. Make sure they are not psycho.

2020-06-13 Joscha Bach on AI Podcast


2019-10-12 I still don’t understand what you’re saying.

2019-09-15 Bostrom on Joe Rogan

In his appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience Bostrom explains the Simulation Argument to Rogan. At first Rogan pretends to understand the argument, but later backtracks and challenges Bostrom by asking “But given that we don’t have any evidence that a simulated universe is possible, why can’t we assume that probably we are not in a simulation?” Bostrom spends about twenty minutes trying to rephrase his argument in a way that Rogan can understand. He then makes the regretable choice of pivoting to a thought experiment where he argues that Rogan’s mind might not be embedded in a biological brain like he thinks it is, but rather it might be just a random occurrence in a primordial intergalactic gas cloud embedded in a infinite universe. What followed was this delightful exchange:

Bostrom: By taking the path you want to take with the Simulation Argument, I wonder if you would then be comited to thinking that you are, in effect, a Boltzmann brain in a gas cloud super early in the universe

Rogan: I still don’t understand what you’re saying.

2019-10-12 Craig Jones on “butt wrestling”

Craig Jones on “butt wrestling”.

2019-09-16 Input Randomness vs Output Randomness

Greg Borenstein

Attributed to Geoff Engelstein